Political opportunity and historical culpability are different things, and the reparations campaign conflates them in ways that distort the debate.
Historical culpability is determined by who did what and when. On that measure, Portugal bears greater culpability than Britain by almost every metric. France bears comparable culpability and has the added specific wrong of the Haitian debt. Britain’s record, while serious, is further mitigated by its role in abolition and enforcement. If historical culpability were the primary driver, the campaign’s focus would be distributed accordingly.
Political opportunity is determined by who is most likely to respond to pressure and provide the desired outcome. On that measure, Britain comes near the top of the list. The campaign’s actual distribution of effort and pressure reflects the political opportunity calculation rather than the historical culpability calculation. This is understandable from the campaign’s perspective. But it undermines the claim that the campaign is primarily about historical justice rather than political and financial expediency.
